Thanks Adam. It should be next year when the actual primary listing moves to the US because I think it'll take that long to get all the regulatory approvals.
I'm not 100% on the timing, but I think you have time yet
Novice question I’m afraid. I hold Wise and it’s now one of my largest positions as I agree with your assessment of its future potential but I wonder what effect the mass adoption of stablecoins could have on their business model. Why would anyone need an FX conversion infrastructure if a US backed stablecoin is truly globally adopted?
Great question, Jon, and definitely not a novice one. You’ve effectively asked two related but distinct questions, so let’s break them apart.
First, the stablecoin angle.
The real threat stablecoins pose to financial intermediaries like Wise lies in long-term adoption. Right now, stablecoin transactions within a single network can be fast and free, but only once you're in the system. For most people, there’s still a need to “onramp” (convert fiat into stablecoins) and then “offramp” (convert back at the other end). These steps usually involve fees, friction, and regulation, exactly the kinds of problems stablecoins aim to eliminate.
For stablecoins to be truly revolutionary, they’d need to replace fiat entirely, so that everything from your coffee to your mortgage is priced and paid in stablecoins. That world eliminates the need for on/off ramps and makes traditional payment processors less relevant. But we're not there yet.
Even then, exchanging between stablecoins - say, USDT to EURC - still requires infrastructure, liquidity, and trusted intermediaries, not unlike forex today.
The second part of your question is more speculative: what if we ended up with a single global currency? That’s more a question of geopolitics and governance than stablecoins. If everyone used the same currency, there's no need for cross-border transfers at all, and in that scenario, yes, Wise’s core business model disappears. Personally, I don’t see us heading there anytime soon. If anything, global monetary trends feel more fragmented than unified.
That said, Wise isn’t a riskless investment. You can absolutely sketch out plausible futures (crypto, stablecoins, central bank digital currencies) that erode its value over time.
For what it’s worth, I’m keeping an eye on Circle (issuer of USDC and EURC) as a potential investment. If we ever do get meaningful stablecoin adoption at scale, companies like Circle could become key infrastructure players. If the investment case holds up, it might feature in a future Wonder Stocks write-up.
On the global currency idea: I’m not a full-on Bitcoiner, but I’m not a “no-coiner” either. I assume that any global currency would likely emerge outside government control, since different governments have different goals. That’s why I hold a small tail-risk position: about 2% of my portfolio in Strategy, which owns ~3% of all Bitcoin in existence, and another 2% in physical gold. If either of those ever becomes a de facto global reserve asset, I should do pretty well.
But again, those are long shots. Interesting ones, but not core to my investment thesis today.
Thanks Jamie for your prompt and full response. I tend to agree that any crypto based scenario is likely decades away but convenience and laziness can be massive and swift drivers of change. Also the potential benefits to the huge criminal money ‘markets’ may also drive its progress.
Also, I noticed last year Andreessen Horowitz reduced their stake from 9%to less than 3% .Do they still own any shares in Wise ? I bit disappointing they perhaps have sold out as I was hoping they would be helping push the wise IPO.
I'm surprised Gilmartin , none exec, sold some shares recently .Nevertheless , I expect Wise will become one of my largest holdings in due course as I concur with your vision of the future.
Hi Keten, thanks for your comments. Can't say as I understand the logic of the Reuters article.
Regarding the Andreessen Horowitz sales, could you send me a link to finding that because I'm struggling to find it. I know they've been transferring stock to Rampell but can't find what the changes have been.
On the Gilmartin point, I'm not concerned. People sell for lots of reasons. Her logic could be as simple as, yes I like the investment, but also, I'd like a holiday home lol
Ah, I think that wasn't a sale, Andreessen Horowitz also had B shares at the IPO with the ability to convert to A shares at different dates for distribution to AH partners. As I understand it, these haven't been sold
I might be wrong on tye exact details thoigh as it is rather complex
I can't see that anywhere. They sold 4m last year. I guess they are venture capital and once something is public they want to deploy in the next start up
Ok , I'm a trader as well as an investor. Bloomberg reported it. Its a Peter Thiel vehicle , possibly from ipo. Of course, doesn't change the investment case , more FYI. Probably shows we will get a huge turnover in shareholders till the US ipo with hopefully a lot more tech savvy US funds gaining exposure.
Thanks for such a thorough article laying out the investment case so clearly. One on my watchlist but was planning on continuing to research until “Leger Day”. However the timing of the US listing with the “golden share / B share / owner structure” ending in July surely cant be a coincidence…. so feel like its decision time now….
Thanks Adam. It should be next year when the actual primary listing moves to the US because I think it'll take that long to get all the regulatory approvals.
I'm not 100% on the timing, but I think you have time yet
Best
Jamie
Novice question I’m afraid. I hold Wise and it’s now one of my largest positions as I agree with your assessment of its future potential but I wonder what effect the mass adoption of stablecoins could have on their business model. Why would anyone need an FX conversion infrastructure if a US backed stablecoin is truly globally adopted?
Great question, Jon, and definitely not a novice one. You’ve effectively asked two related but distinct questions, so let’s break them apart.
First, the stablecoin angle.
The real threat stablecoins pose to financial intermediaries like Wise lies in long-term adoption. Right now, stablecoin transactions within a single network can be fast and free, but only once you're in the system. For most people, there’s still a need to “onramp” (convert fiat into stablecoins) and then “offramp” (convert back at the other end). These steps usually involve fees, friction, and regulation, exactly the kinds of problems stablecoins aim to eliminate.
For stablecoins to be truly revolutionary, they’d need to replace fiat entirely, so that everything from your coffee to your mortgage is priced and paid in stablecoins. That world eliminates the need for on/off ramps and makes traditional payment processors less relevant. But we're not there yet.
Even then, exchanging between stablecoins - say, USDT to EURC - still requires infrastructure, liquidity, and trusted intermediaries, not unlike forex today.
The second part of your question is more speculative: what if we ended up with a single global currency? That’s more a question of geopolitics and governance than stablecoins. If everyone used the same currency, there's no need for cross-border transfers at all, and in that scenario, yes, Wise’s core business model disappears. Personally, I don’t see us heading there anytime soon. If anything, global monetary trends feel more fragmented than unified.
That said, Wise isn’t a riskless investment. You can absolutely sketch out plausible futures (crypto, stablecoins, central bank digital currencies) that erode its value over time.
For what it’s worth, I’m keeping an eye on Circle (issuer of USDC and EURC) as a potential investment. If we ever do get meaningful stablecoin adoption at scale, companies like Circle could become key infrastructure players. If the investment case holds up, it might feature in a future Wonder Stocks write-up.
On the global currency idea: I’m not a full-on Bitcoiner, but I’m not a “no-coiner” either. I assume that any global currency would likely emerge outside government control, since different governments have different goals. That’s why I hold a small tail-risk position: about 2% of my portfolio in Strategy, which owns ~3% of all Bitcoin in existence, and another 2% in physical gold. If either of those ever becomes a de facto global reserve asset, I should do pretty well.
But again, those are long shots. Interesting ones, but not core to my investment thesis today.
Thanks Jamie for your prompt and full response. I tend to agree that any crypto based scenario is likely decades away but convenience and laziness can be massive and swift drivers of change. Also the potential benefits to the huge criminal money ‘markets’ may also drive its progress.
Thanks for the article. Wise is a big investment for me at around the prevailing price but a few points.
On valuation , is it really that cheap compared to US peers at current levels. I noticed this article on Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/wises-us-listing-switch-lacks-financial-wisdom-2025-06-05/
Also, I noticed last year Andreessen Horowitz reduced their stake from 9%to less than 3% .Do they still own any shares in Wise ? I bit disappointing they perhaps have sold out as I was hoping they would be helping push the wise IPO.
I'm surprised Gilmartin , none exec, sold some shares recently .Nevertheless , I expect Wise will become one of my largest holdings in due course as I concur with your vision of the future.
Keten
Hi Keten, thanks for your comments. Can't say as I understand the logic of the Reuters article.
Regarding the Andreessen Horowitz sales, could you send me a link to finding that because I'm struggling to find it. I know they've been transferring stock to Rampell but can't find what the changes have been.
On the Gilmartin point, I'm not concerned. People sell for lots of reasons. Her logic could be as simple as, yes I like the investment, but also, I'd like a holiday home lol
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/wise-WISE/share-news/Wise-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/93496821
15th March 2024 , if you cant open the link.
Ah, I think that wasn't a sale, Andreessen Horowitz also had B shares at the IPO with the ability to convert to A shares at different dates for distribution to AH partners. As I understand it, these haven't been sold
I might be wrong on tye exact details thoigh as it is rather complex
J
Ok thanks .BTW, this am,
WISE PLC (WISE) +2%; Shareholder Valar Velocity placing 4.8mln shares at 1030p. Holder no longer holds class a share
I can't see that anywhere. They sold 4m last year. I guess they are venture capital and once something is public they want to deploy in the next start up
Ok , I'm a trader as well as an investor. Bloomberg reported it. Its a Peter Thiel vehicle , possibly from ipo. Of course, doesn't change the investment case , more FYI. Probably shows we will get a huge turnover in shareholders till the US ipo with hopefully a lot more tech savvy US funds gaining exposure.
Thanks for such a thorough article laying out the investment case so clearly. One on my watchlist but was planning on continuing to research until “Leger Day”. However the timing of the US listing with the “golden share / B share / owner structure” ending in July surely cant be a coincidence…. so feel like its decision time now….